We did it. The wait is over. A long summer full of dreadful heat waves and food-borne illnesses tested our resolve, but now, our NFL fix doesn’t have to come from scandalous affairs or podcast clips. Football is back. WE are back.
As always, there are familiar faces in new places. Myles Garrett is a Ram. Trey Hendrickson is a Raven. Tua Tagovailoa is a Falcon. Kyler Murray is a Viking. It’ll all take some getting used to, but once the ball is kicked on Wednesday night in Seattle, it’ll all feel familiar again. Let’s take a look at the first game of the year and get excited for the next five months of football.
Patriots at Seahawks (-3.5)
Maybe it’s just me, but I started to feel like a Super Bowl rematch to kick off the season was becoming somewhat of a tradition in the NFL. Apparently, Wednesday’s matchup between the Patriots and the defending champ Seahawks is the first such matchup in 10 years, and only the third ever in Week 1.
Coming off a Super Bowl win thanks in large part to a dominant defense and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker, the Seahawks have a lot to replace. With Walker off to Kansas City, a handful of key defensive players (Riq Woolen, Boye Mafe, Coby Bryant) now missing from the fold, and former OC Klint Kubiak taking over as head coach for the Raiders, it’s hard to imagine that same level of dominance.
But, head coach Mike Macdonald should give the 12th Man some confidence. Macdonald boasts the highest winning percentage (regular season and playoffs) of all current head coaches at 73%. That’s pretty damn good, especially when you see guys like John Madden and Vince Lombardi right ahead of him in the all-time ranks. Obviously, I’m not saying Macdonald is on their level. But he’s already got one championship under his belt, and despite the player departures and injuries on defense, he’s proven he can coach up as stout of a unit as any in the NFL.
Seattle also returns QB Sam Darnold and the reigning Offensive Player of the Year in superstar WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. People have been waiting for Darnold to turn back into “Jets Darnold” for years, and at this point, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. He’s made himself into a genuinely good quarterback, and he’s got a good enough supporting cast for them to make another run. JSN will most likely have to carry a receiver room that includes Cooper Kupp and Rasheed Shahid, but keep an eye on rookie RB Jadarian Price from Notre Dame. Price has turned heads and earned the lead back duties in Seattle. Expected to lead the backfield in carries, he will benefit from fresher legs than most first-round RBs after backing up Jeremiyah Love in South Bend.
On the other side, the New England Patriots are hoping to avoid a Super Bowl hangover and get some revenge for what was a pretty lopsided final in February. The Pats were being shut out in that game until the fourth quarter when QB Drake Maye put up some impressive numbers in garbage time, but help is on the way.
The offense got a much-needed boost to the receiver group this offseason by adding AJ Brown in a trade with Philadelphia. Even with Maye breaking out and having a stellar season, there’s only so much a QB can do with a receiving core lead by Shoeless Mack Hollins, a 31-year-old Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte, who now finds himself with the Houston Texans. Brown’s messy departure from Philly might give pause to Pats fans (who have dealt with enough of their own off-field drama), but this may be a match made in heaven. Brown played for head coach Mike Vrabel when they were both with the Titans from 2019 to 2021, and he crossed 1,000 yards in both season where he played at least 14 games (13 games, 869 yards in 2021).
Much of the AJ Brown drama with the Eagles had to do with his target share. He felt he wasn’t getting the ball enough, and that led to a rift in several relationships. That shouldn’t be a problem in New England. Brown is a premier receiver in the NFL, and the rest of the Patriot receivers…are not. Romeo Doubs is a good piece and could be a reliable option for Maye in the slot, but no one has ever mistaken him for a true number one. That should pave the way for AJ Brown to eat on the outside, deep down the field, and in the red zone.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots aren’t so different from the Seahawks. While they don’t have as much to replace defensively, K’Lavon Chaisson chipped in 7.5 sacks (2nd on the team) and 2 forced fumbles (1st on the team). Their 35 sacks total ranked toward the bottom of the NFL, and they’ll need to get more pressure if they want to live up to Vrabel’s defensive expectations. However, pressure doesn’t just come from the front seven. New England’s secondary has some elite potential. Christian Gonzalez has developed into one of the league’s top corners, Marcus Jones is a big play waiting to happen, and Kevin Byard led the NFL in interceptions with the Bears last season. If the secondary and front seven can work in harmony and make the opposing QB hold on to the ball, New England could be right back in the mix in a loaded AFC.
The Picks
AJ Brown Over 62.5 Receiving Yards: In a big game on the road against a depleted secondary, Drake Maye is going to be looking Brown’s way early and often to get his new number one off to hot start. Add in the fact that TreVeyon Henderson is out for this game, and a passing attack looks more and more likely.
Patriots +3.5: Similar to the AJ Brown play, this is based on Seattle’s banged up defense. The Pats should have an easier time moving the ball through the air than they did last time, and Vrabel will want to come out swinging to prove that his club has tuned out his self-inflicted distractions.
Good luck!
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